It’s Big Intelligence and it’s awesome

The Data Problem

The vast majority of new air services are purely based on market creation, where the value of historical data is limited. Low cost, regional carriers and new airline models flourish on routes where the most used data set had zero historical traffic. Why? Historical data provides you with backward information (what was sold) but not the market potential (what could be sold). Moreover, MIDT or BSP data uses information generated from the travel agencies bookings, while online portals, direct and internet sales, allotments, and groups represent the bulk of the market! Building you growth on limited information is a very risky business, why take a chance?

Triangulation to Minimize Bias

Predictive Mobility’s approach is based on Triangulation. It facilitates validation of data through cross verification from more than two sources. It tests the consistency of findings obtained through different instruments and increases the chance to control, or at least assess, some of the risks influencing the forecasts. Triangulation is not just about validation but about deepening and widening your understanding of the market forces. It leads to multi-perspectives that explain more fully, the richness and complexity of a market pattern by studying it from more than just one standpoint. What are your benefits?
More Data from historical market information to socio-economics, customer patterns, etc.
Multiple Estimations using various modelling such as gravity models, demand un-truncation, capacity forecasting, price elasticity, S-curves, and like markets.
Robust Results having more than one methodology to build your market study!

Triangulation aims to reduce your operational, commercial, and financial, risks in launching a new route by cross referencing the results of the various methodologies deployed. We are the only firm having designed multiple forecasting models:

· Gravity Model is the most common spatial interaction model in travel forecasting. It is based on the assumption that interaction between two locations is proportional to their size and inversely proportional to their distance. We supplement it by the destination choice model based on the availability of other modes of transport, city economics, and other parameters;
· Un-Truncation Model is particularly performing for passenger demand recapture from other airlines and competing city and helps enhance the quality of the catchment area. In addition, it helps determine the optimal demand regardless of the current capacity available.
· Capacity is driving the demand as scheduling a brand new route generates new traffic that no historical data could have made you guess! The Capacity model is addressing this by looking at the demand stimulation and creation being generated.
· Price Elasticity shall be used to formulate the future demand based on the pricing evolution, either driven by some intrinsic capacity growth or by a competitive reaction from your competitors!
· Demand Curve is providing you with an intuitive and rapid estimate on the potential demand based on the distance of your flight, its capacity, markets / regions / countries of origin and destination, based on the thousands of new flights in our database.
· Like Markets is the aggregation of similar routes which determine the potential of a new destination, its market stimulations, impact on yields, leakage, etc.
· Armed with these results, you just need to determine the proper aggregation level between the models, calibrate our Quality of Service Index model to determine the potential local and flow traffic demand, allocate your costs, and generate your own Profit and Loss results.
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Big Intelligence = Big Data + Market Intelligence